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4-1 last night! 143-121 on the season.
Our only loss was the Dodgers in a great hitter’s park against a below average pitcher who had the best start of his life. These things happen I guess.
Eight MLB tips for tonight on Patreon, four are below.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
MIL – Brandon Woodruff 4.74 ERA/3.82 FIP
TBR – Shane Baz 4.15 ERA/4.21 FIP
Woodruff hasn’t quite been himself this season. He’s been far below what he was last year, but I still think we see that guy before the season is through. His homerun rate is through the roof rate now and if that can come down, so can his numbers. I like this match-up for him as the Rays have just a 95 wRC+ against righties on the season. Even if we go by his current numbers only, not his rest of the projections as well, the System still likes him here.
Baz has only made three starts this season and the stuff is definitely there, but he’s struggled with walks and homeruns as well. The Brewers have a 102 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has really bounced back of late since the return of Josh Hader. While the Rays bullpen is in a real bad spot right now with a 126 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Brewers Moneyline (+106)
Houston Astros at New York Mets Betting Tips:
HOU – Framber Valdez 2.90 ERA/3.39 FIP
NYM – Carlos Carrasco 4.42 ERA/3.58 FIP
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
CIN – Luis Castillo 3.71 ERA/3.46 FIP
CHC – Keegan Thompson 3.10 ERA/4.15 FIP
Thompson has worked out of the bullpen and started this season, but over his past five starts he has a 6.00 ERA/5.42 FIP. Homeruns and walks have been a real problem for him. The Reds offense isn’t the greatest, but their stats are a bit skewed by how bad they started. They have a team 101 wRC+ over the past thirty days.
80 degrees with winds blowing out at 10mph makes a real difference at Wrigley Field. I was originally thinking F5 over here as the System likes it, but most of the runs should come from the Reds side and this is a real nice price on them for that bet.
Reds First 5 Innings (-105)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
LAD – Clayton Kershaw 2.00 ERA/2.44 FIP
COL – Kyle Freeland 4.29 ERA/4.15 FIP
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
SDP – Sean Manaea 3.87 ERA/3.93 FIP
ARI – Zac Gallen 2.92 ERA/3.59 FIP
Gallen has really struggled of late with a 4.10 ERA/4.95 FIP over his past five starts. The bullpen behind him hasn’t been good all season and is also struggling of late with a 115 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Manaea hasn’t been on his A-game either with a 3.52 ERA/4.09 FIP over his past two weeks, but he draws a pretty solid match-up as the Diamondbacks have just a 87 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
This is close on a total, but the Padres offense has been red hot of late with a 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Put them against a struggling pitcher and bullpen, and I think they are good for at least five runs here. The Diamondbacks should be able to do the rest.
Padres/Diamondbacks Over 7.5 (-110)
Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
DET – Tarik Skubal 3.63 ERA/2.68 FIP
SFG – Carlos Rodon 2.70 ERA/2.34 FIP