June 21st, 2022 MLB Betting Tips

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3-1 last night.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:

LAD – Tony Gonsolin 1.42 ERA/3.10 FIP
CIN – Tyler Mahle 4.46 ERA/3.29 FIP

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:

CHC – Matt Swarmer 5.23 ERA/8.74 FIP
PIT – Roansy Contreras 3.06 ERA/3.87 FIP

A big win for the Pirates last night and we’re looking for another today. Swarmer has been an absolute disaster and the projections already have him as one of the worst starters in baseball.

Contreras is a very average across the board in all the categories. Today, that should be enough.

Pirates -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

CLE – Aaron Civale 7.84 ERA/4.97 FIP
MIN – Joe Ryan 2.81 ERA/3.73 FIP

Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

PHI – Kyle Gibson 4.04 ERA/3.59 FIP
TEX – Martin Perez 2.10 ERA/2.62 FIP

Perez has been great, but this is an extremely tough match-up as the Phillies hit for a 118 wRC+ against lefties. The offense has been red hot with a 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I don’t think he’s actually this good and the Phillies are the kind of team that can prove it.

Gibson has a much better match-up here as the Rangers have just an 89 wRC+ against righties this season.

This is a close one, but I have to take it with a positive moneyline.

Phillies Moneyline (+105)

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

TOR – Kevin Gausman 3.21 ERA/1.74 FIP
CHW – Dylan Cease 2.91 ERA/2.77 FIP

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

ARI – Zac Gallen 2.91 ERA/3.64 FIP
SDP – Sean Manaea 3.95 ERA/3.85 FIP

After a hot start, Gallen has really fallen back down to earth. He has a 5.61 ERA/5.43 FIP over his past five starts. The Padres are about an average team against right handed pitching.

Still, that’s much better than the Diamondbacks hit lefties. They have just an 87 wRC+ against southpaws and Manaea’s 3.75 ERA/4.13 FIP over his past four starts looks much better to me.

The Padres bullpen is much better than the Diamondbacks and they should be able to make this one hold on.

Padres Moneyline (-127)

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

SEA – Marco Gonzales 3.41 ERA/5.41 FIP
OAK – James Kaprielian 6.31 ERA/6.49 FIP