August 1st, 2022 MLB Betting Tips

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4-3-1 last night. 220-189 for the season. 66-61 for the month. 48-38 over the last three weeks.

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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

SEA – Marco Gonzales 3.66 ERA/5.08 FIP
NYY – Domingo German 8.22 ERA/7.42 FIP

Things have been rough for German since his return from injury and I don’t know how much better they get here.

Marco is a guy I will put up with his ERA/FIP differential when he’s playing at home in a pitcher friendly park against an average offense. This is neither of those things. The Yankees crush lefties and this is a pitcher friendly park.
I see bad and short days for both.

Mariners/Yankees Over 9 Runs (-110)
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Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

KCR – Brad Keller 4.18 ERA/4.26 FIP
CHW – Michael Kopech 3.16 ERA/4.42 FIP

Kopech has really struggled over his past four starts with a huge homerun rate and a 4.43 ERA/6.91 FIP. Strikeouts down, walks up, homeruns up. Yes, please.

Keller has a 4.76 ERA/3.91 FIP over his past four starts. The homerun rate has been saving him lately with just a 5.6% HR/FB rate. The weather and White Sox offense should do something about that. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Both of these bullpens have really struggled of late.

All that plus winds blowing out to right-center at 10MPH.

Royals/White Sox Over 9 Runs (-107)
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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

COL – Antonio Senzatela 4.90 ERA/3.99 FIP
SDP – Mike Clevinger 3.38 ERA/3.85 FIP

The Coors hangover is definitely in play here, but this is just a great match-up for Clevinger as well. The Rockies have just an 86 wRC+ against righties this season and this is a very pitcher friendly park.

I don’t love Senzatela’s strikeout numbers, but he does a great job of limiting the long ball. He’s really been killed by a high BABIP this year. The Padres aren’t a great BABIP teamm and they have an 89 wRC+ over the last thirty days.

Both bullpens are better than average.

Rockies/Padres Under 7.5 (-110)
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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

LAD – Andrew Heaney 0.47 ERA/2.40 FIP
SFG – Logan Webb 2.91 ERA/3.21 FIP

Only a 19.1 inning sample on Heaney, but that is dominant. A high strikeout and low homerun rate proves that it’s not just luck. The Giants offense has really struggled of late with an 82 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Webb is the Giants best pitcher, but he’s not infallible. The Dodgers offense is as tough as it gets with a 121 wRC+ against righties. The Giants bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball over the past two weeks.

No idea why this line isn’t higher.

Dodgers Moneyline (-134)
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